Validation of Endometrial Cancer Risk Prediction Model Developed Originally in the Nurses' Health Study
malignancy that is strongly influenced by modifiable lifestyle factors such as obesity and postmenopausal hormone use. Given the current obesity epidemic, we are likely to see a rise in endometrial cancer incidence. However, to date, a risk prediction model for endometrial cancer has not been developed for use in the general population that could be used to identify individuals at high risk that may benefit from targeted screening, lifestyle intervention, or chemopreventive strategies. Additionally, such a model could help project the economic burden of the disease, as well as assess the potential impact of a particular intervention. We propose to develop a risk prediction model for Type I endometrial cancer using the Nurses' Health Study followed by validation of the model among female participants in the PLCO screening trial.
AIM 1: We will develop a risk prediction model for Type I endometrial cancer using Nurses' Health Study participants. The model will allow for nonproportional hazards and account for temporal relationships between established endometrial cancer risk factors and development of disease. The model will be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing Type I endometrial cancer to age 70.
AIM 2: We will validate the Type I endometrial cancer risk prediction model among female participants of the PLCO
Screening Trial. Validation will be conducted in two ways. First we will assess calibration by calculating an overall chisquare goodness of fit test. Second, we will test discriminatory ability of the model by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Evan Busch, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Megan Rice, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Jennifer Prescott, Booz Allen Hamilton
Bernard Rosner, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
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Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium.
Shi J, Kraft P, Rosner B, Benavente Y, Black A, Brinton LA, Chen C, Clarke MA, Cook LS, Costas L, Dal Maso L, Freudenheim JL, Frias-Gomez J, Friedenreich CM, Garcia-Closas M, Goodman MT, Johnson L, La Vecchia C, Levi F, Lissowska J, ...show more Lu L, McCann SE, Moysich KB, Negri E, O'Connell K, Parazzini F, Petruzella S, Polesel J, Ponte J, Rebbeck TR, Reynolds P, Ricceri F, Risch H, Sacerdote C, Setiawan VW, Shu XO, Spurdle AB, Trabert B, Webb PM, Wentzensen N, Wilkens LR, Xu WH, Yang HP, Yu H, Du M, De Vivo I
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2023 Jan 23 PUBMED