Learning about the effectiveness of lung cancer screening in real-world target populations
Principal Investigator
Name
Sarah Robertson
Degrees
PhD
Institution
Dartmouth College
Position Title
Assistant Professor
About this CDAS Project
Study
PLCO
(Learn more about this study)
Project ID
PLCO-2005
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Dec 22, 2025
Title
Learning about the effectiveness of lung cancer screening in real-world target populations
Summary
This project is supported by an NCI R00 award and aims to estimate the effects of lung cancer screening strategies in nationally representative US target populations. The project will advance methods for combining datasets to learn about screening strategies in different populations, to answer the questions of how screening strategies compare across trials (e.g. comparing low-dose CT to no screening). It will use transportability methods and simulation modeling to compare screening strategies in clinically relevant target populations. This project will provide new insights on the comparative effectiveness of lung cancer screening strategies. As a result, simulation models for lung cancer screening will be more applicable to target populations of interest where interventions are applied.
Aims
We will use PLCO data to address the following aims:
1. Indirect comparisons (Aim 1): We will use PLCO data, which compared chest x-ray vs usual case) for population-adjusted indirect comparisons with the NLST, which compared low-dose CT vs chest x-ray. This allows us to estimate the comparative effectiveness of the CT screening strategy against a usual case in nationally representative populations.
2. Simulation Model Calibration (Aim 2): We will primarily use the NLST data to validate the simulation model, but the PLCO data may also be useful to inform and validate the risk stratification inputs for our model.
3. Predictive Modeling and Risk Stratification (Aim 3): We will use PLCO data to validate risk prediction models (e.g., PLCOm2012) and new models derived from observational cohorts. We will use these models to identify any heterogeneity in screening benefit.
Collaborators
Sarah Robertson Dartmouth College