Predicting risk of cancer in 12 sites using the screened arm of the PLCO

Principal Investigator

Name
Grant Izmirlian

Degrees
Ph.D.

Institution
National Cancer Institute

Position Title
Mathematical Statistician

Email
izmirlig@mail.nih.gov

About this CDAS Project

Study
PLCO (Learn more about this study)

Project ID
PLCO-762

Initial CDAS Request Approval
Apr 5, 2021

Title
Predicting risk of cancer in 12 sites using the screened arm of the PLCO

Summary
We wish to produce a model for projecting risk of cancer in the 12 sites for which the MCED liquid biopsy test has highest sensitivity at specificity 99.5%. Specifically these consist of cancer of the anus, bladder,
colon/rectum, esophagus, head and neck, liver/bile-duct, lung, lymphoma, ovary, pancreas. plasma cell neoplasm and stomach. Potential predictors for the model include variables in the background questionnaire such as sex, age, smoking history, race, bmi, family history of cancer, use of HRT, and others.

Aims

Build a model for incidence of the 12 cancers listed above. Covariates will be entered as main effects of categorical variables. Model selection will be done using lasso with nested cross-validation to determine the regularization parameter.

Validate the model internally via cross-validation

The validated risk model will be used in a net benefit analysis of potential MCED screening trial designs.

Collaborators

Paul Pinsky
Jian-Lun Xu