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Predicting risk of cancer in 12 sites using the screened arm of the PLCO

Principal Investigator
Name
Grant Izmirlian
Degrees
Ph.D.
Institution
National Cancer Institute
Position Title
Mathematical Statistician
Email
About this CDAS Project
Study
PLCO (Learn more about this study)
Project ID
PLCO-762
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Apr 5, 2021
Title
Predicting risk of cancer in 12 sites using the screened arm of the PLCO
Summary
We wish to produce a model for projecting risk of cancer in the 12 sites for which the MCED liquid biopsy test has highest sensitivity at specificity 99.5%. Specifically these consist of cancer of the anus, bladder,
colon/rectum, esophagus, head and neck, liver/bile-duct, lung, lymphoma, ovary, pancreas. plasma cell neoplasm and stomach. Potential predictors for the model include variables in the background questionnaire such as sex, age, smoking history, race, bmi, family history of cancer, use of HRT, and others.
Aims

Build a model for incidence of the 12 cancers listed above. Covariates will be entered as main effects of categorical variables. Model selection will be done using lasso with nested cross-validation to determine the regularization parameter.

Validate the model internally via cross-validation

The validated risk model will be used in a net benefit analysis of potential MCED screening trial designs.

Collaborators

Paul Pinsky
Jian-Lun Xu