John Cramer

M.D.

Karmanos Cancer Institute

Assistant Professor

PLCO (Learn more about this study)

PLCO-760

Apr 5, 2021

Development and Validation of a Head and Neck Cancer Risk Prediction Model

The Kerala Oral Cancer Screening Trial, the only randomized trial of screening for oral cavity cancer, found that screening for oral cancer reduced mortality by 27%. However, the incidence of oral cavity cancer is considerably lower in the United States than in India where the trial was conducted. Due partly to differences in the prevalence of oral cancer, the U.S. Preventive Services Taskforce (USPST) currently does not recommend any screening for oral cavity or other head and neck cancer. One major limitation preventing the USPST from recommending screening for oral cavity or other types of head and neck cancer is an unclear delineation of high-risk status. Identification of high-risk individuals (based on heavy cigarette smoking, tobacco chewing or alcohol use) may allow screening interventions to be targeted to the subset of the US population at greatest risk of head and neck cancer.

Our central hypothesis is that we will be able to identify a risk model that predicts development of oral cavity or head and neck cancer using age, race, sex, BMI, education, family history, cigarette smoking, tobacco chewing and alcohol consumption. The proposed study will provide a foundation to test this hypothesis by pursuing the following specific aims:

AIM 1: Our primary aim is to identify a risk model that predicts the incidence of oral cancer
AIM 2: Our secondary aim is to identify a risk model that predicts the incidence of head and neck cancer (oral cavity/oropharynx/larynx/hypopharynx).