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Selecting the risk cut off for the LLP model.

Principal Investigator
Name
Kevin ten Haaf
Degrees
MSc
Institution
Erasmus MC
Position Title
Researcher
Email
About this CDAS Project
Study
PLCO (Learn more about this study)
Project ID
PLCO-301
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Sep 6, 2017
Title
Selecting the risk cut off for the LLP model.
Summary
The application of risk prediction models for the selection of individuals for lung cancer (LC) screening requires risk thresholds to distinguish between individuals eligible and ineligible for screening. In a previous project, the NLST and PLCO datasets were used to evaluate a number of risk prediction models [1]. The sensitivity and specificity for each model was evaluated for risk thresholds that selected a similar number of individuals as the NLST criteria in the PLCO [1].

However, little is known about the performance of risk prediction models across different risk thresholds. The UKLS trial utilised the Liverpool Lung Project risk model (LLPv2) with a risk threshold of 5% for 5-year LC incidence as the selection criteria in the trial [2]. The UKLS yielded a 1.7% LC detection rate at baseline, which was higher than the NLST or NELSON trials [3]. This study evaluates the performance of different risk thresholds for the selection of individuals for lung cancer screening utilising the LLPv2 model.

References:
[1] ten Haaf, Risk prediction models for selection of lung cancer screening candidates: A retrospective validation study, PLOS Medicine, 2017
[2] Baldwin, UK Lung Screen (UKLS) nodule management protocol: modelling of a single screen randomised controlled trial of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer, Thorax, 2011.
[3] Field, UK Lung Cancer RCT Pilot Screening Trial: baseline findings from the screening arm provide evidence for the potential implementation of lung cancer screening , Thorax, 2016
Aims

To investigate the performance of the LLPv2 model thresholds for the selection of individuals for lung cancer screening over a range of risk thresholds.

Collaborators

Harry J. de Koning (Erasmus Medical Center)
John K. Field (University of Liverpool)

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