Calibration of a microsimulation model of lung cancer natural history in Australia
Principal Investigator
Name
Marianne Weber
Degrees
BA(Hons) PhD
Institution
The University of Sydney
Position Title
Principle Research Fellow
About this CDAS Project
Study
NLST
(Learn more about this study)
Project ID
NLST-1495
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Feb 4, 2026
Title
Calibration of a microsimulation model of lung cancer natural history in Australia
Summary
The NLST was the first randomised control trial to demonstrate a lung cancer-specific mortality benefit using low dose computed tomography (LDCT) to screen for lung cancer. This result, along with other evidence, has since informed the roll out of the Australian National Lung Cancer Screening Program using biennial LDCT screening for those age 50-70 years, with minimum 30 pack year smoking history and who have smoked within the past 10 years.
The objective of this project is to calibrate a mathematical model of the natural history of lung cancer by synthesising a variety of data sources including; Australian cancer registries, lung cancer screening trials (including the International Lung Screening Trial: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02871856), cross-sectional surveys of Australian smoking behaviour, and the 45 and Up Study (a study of 263,157 Australians recruited in 2006-2009, linked to health administrative datasets).
Aims
The aims of this project are to:
- Use screening outcomes from the NLST (including lung cancer stage at diagnosis, incidental findings, lung and all-cause mortality), by mode of detection, age, sex and smoking history to calibrate the parameters of a microsimulation model of the natural history of lung cancer using various mathematical approaches (such as Bayesian evidence synthesis).
- Use the calibrated model to evaluate the long-term health economic impacts of the existing Australian National Lung Cancer Screening Program.
- Evaluate the health and economic benefits of optimised approaches to lung cancer screening, including program eligibility, tobacco control interventions, and new screening technologies.
Collaborators
Marianne Weber The University of Sydney
Michael Caruana The University of Sydney
Yue He The University of Sydney
Joachim Worthington The University of Sydney
Karen Canfell The University of Sydney
Preston Ngo International Agency for Research on Cancer