Anthony Miller

MD, FRCP

University of Toronto

Professor Emeritus

NLST (Learn more about this study)

NLST-4

Dec 7, 2012

The Cancer Risk Management Lung Cancer Model

A microsimulation model using Canadian data has been developed to aid in policy development for and cost-effectiveness of interventions for Cancer Control in Canada. The initial model for lung cancer utilizes Canadian smoking, radon exposure, cost and treatment data. An initial attempt has been made using published data on the NLST to model the impact of low dose computerised tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer. We have been able to replicate the results of NLST, but wish to procure additional data to expand the model to encompass annual and or biennial LDCT screening. A particular requirement is to understand how long after the third screen in NLST the incidence of lung cancer returned to a baseline level (inferred from the Chest X-Ray control arm in NLST and published data on Chest X-ray screening in the PLCO trial). We are interested in evaluating different age and gender bands, and also the histologic types. Once the model has been refined, it will be utilized for providing back ground information for lung cancer control, comparing different approaches to reducing lung cancer mortality in Canada.

To model the effect of low dose computerized (LDCT) screening in Canada on lung cancer mortality

To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of annual or biennial continuous LDCT screening on defined high-risk populations.