Microsimulation model of a risk-based lung cancer screening program
Principal Investigator
Name
Jacopo Di Silvestre
Degrees
M.D.
Institution
University of Oslo
Position Title
Student
Email
About this CDAS Project
Study
NLST
(Learn more about this study)
Project ID
NLST-1191
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Jan 26, 2024
Title
Microsimulation model of a risk-based lung cancer screening program
Summary
This project is my master's thesis at the University of Oslo, Norway and it's about the cost-effectiveness of a risk-based lung cancer screening program. The research question is the following:
Is a risk-based lung cancer screening program cost-effective in the Norwegian lung cancer high-risk population?
To do so, a microsimulation model is used to inform the decision. To estimate the initiation risk of lung cancer it uses a Two Stage Clonal Expansion (TSCE) model and assumes a Gompertz growth function of the tumor. Progression is included and based on recent guidelines. The screening program is risk-based, considering the Volume Doubling Time of the tumor.
The project is relevant in the Norwegian setting, it would help reducing the significant uncertainty and shed a light around the cost-effectiveness of a risk-based LDCT screening for lung cancer.
The project has already begun and the model is under construction, the thesis will be finished by June 1st 2024 at the latest.
Is a risk-based lung cancer screening program cost-effective in the Norwegian lung cancer high-risk population?
To do so, a microsimulation model is used to inform the decision. To estimate the initiation risk of lung cancer it uses a Two Stage Clonal Expansion (TSCE) model and assumes a Gompertz growth function of the tumor. Progression is included and based on recent guidelines. The screening program is risk-based, considering the Volume Doubling Time of the tumor.
The project is relevant in the Norwegian setting, it would help reducing the significant uncertainty and shed a light around the cost-effectiveness of a risk-based LDCT screening for lung cancer.
The project has already begun and the model is under construction, the thesis will be finished by June 1st 2024 at the latest.
Aims
1. Determine the cost-effectiveness of a risk-based LDCT screening for lung cancer
2. Inform the model with risks derived from realistic and accurate data
3. Enhance my health economics modelling skills and produce a satisfying master's thesis
4. Validate the model
Collaborators
Supervisor: Emily Annika Burger, University of Oslo
Co-supervisor: Natalia Kunst, University of York