Microsimulation model for lung cancer screening in New Zealand
Principal Investigator
Name
Nokuthaba Sibanda
Degrees
PhD, MSc, BSc
Institution
Victoria University of Wellington
Position Title
Senior Lecturer in Statistics
About this CDAS Project
Study
NLST
(Learn more about this study)
Project ID
NLST-935
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Jul 14, 2022
Title
Microsimulation model for lung cancer screening in New Zealand
Summary
Introduction of a national lung cancer screening programme is being considered in New Zealand. Results from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) have shown a reductiion in lung cancer mortality associated with low-dose computed tomographic (LDCT) screening. Our project seeks to create a microsimulation model that will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of LDCT screening in reducing lung cancer mortality in the New Zealand population.
A microsimulation model has been created that generates the natural history of lung cancer for individuals in the New Zealand population. The inputs were based on New Zealand Cancer Registry data and other published information. This first model mirrors the current situation in New Zealand, where there is no national lung cancer screening programme..
The next part of the project is to develop a microsimulation model that implements LDCT screening. We aim to use data from the NLST to create inputs for this second model. Key information from the trial includes treatment data and lung cancer mortality after screening. New Zealand's indigenous Māori population is not represented in the NLST. Therefore some adjustments will be made to the survival rates from the NLST trial to make them suitable for use in the New Zealand population.
Aims
- Develop and validate a microsimulation model for the natural history of lung cancer in the New Zealand population
- Analyse NLST data to obtain inputs for the next microsimulation model. Apply adjustments for the New Zealand population as appropriate
- Develop and validate a second microsimulation model that incorporates LDCT screening for lung cancer.
- Compare lung cancer mortality rates from the two models
Collaborators
Erandi Hasanthika Nanayakkara Halloluwage