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Calibration of a microsimulation model of lung cancer natural history in Australia

Principal Investigator
Name
Marianne Weber
Degrees
BA(Hons) PhD
Institution
Cancer Council New South Wales
Position Title
Associate Professor
Email
About this CDAS Project
Study
NLST (Learn more about this study)
Project ID
NLST-906
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Apr 4, 2022
Title
Calibration of a microsimulation model of lung cancer natural history in Australia
Summary
The NLST was the first randomised control trial to demonstrate a lung cancer-specific mortality benefit using low dose computed tomography (LDCT) to screen for lung cancer. This result, along with other evidence, has since informed guidelines in settings such as the US, Korea, and Canada that have recommended lung cancer screening using LDCT for those that meet criteria indicating a "high" risk of lung cancer. Following a recently-completed inquiry into lung cancer screening, Cancer Australia as of March 2022 is "continuing scoping work for a potential (Australian) national lung cancer screening program" using biennial LDCT screening for those age 55-74 years (or 50-74 years for First Nations) who, upon entry to the program, have >1.5% risk of developing lung cancer over 6 years as assessed by the PLCOm2012 model of individual risk.

The objective of this project is to calibrate a mathematical model of the natural history of lung cancer by synthesising a variety of data sources including; Australian cancer registries, lung cancer screening trials (including the International Lung Screening Trial: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02871856), cross-sectional surveys of Australian smoking behaviour, and the 45 and Up Study (a study of 263,157 Australians recruited in 2006-2009, linked to health administrative datasets).

The results of the project, i.e. the calibrated model, will be the basis for future research into health economic impacts of interventions in diagnosis, screening, and treatment of lung cancer, and will also be used to support health economic evaluations and impact assessments of a potential screening program in Australia focusing on enrolment strategy, program eligibility, smoking cessation interventions paired with screening, and sub-populations such as First Nations peoples of Australia.
Aims

- We will use the lung cancer outcomes from the NLST, by mode of detection, age, sex and smoking history, in a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to calibrate the parameters of a microsimulation model of the natural history of lung cancer.

Collaborators

Prof. Karen Canfell, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.
A/Prof. Marianne Weber, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.
Dr Michael Caruana, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.
Dr Preston Ngo, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.
Dr Silvia Behar-Harpaz, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.
Dr Stephen Wade, The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Australia.