Martin Tammemagi

Brock University / Henry Ford Health System

PLCO (Learn more about this study)

2009-0095

Jul 15, 2009

Development of a Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Model

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in North America, causing an estimated 34,290 deaths in men and women in the United States in 2008.(1) In the US, age-adjusted to the 2000 US population, the incidence rate was 11.7 per 100,000 men and women per year, based on 2002-2006 Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data.(2) The grave mortality statistics are in large part due to diagnosis on average being at an advanced stage. As effective primary preventions at this time are unknown, a principle hope for the future to improve this situation is to apply effective screening to identify early disease in high risk individuals.(3) Application of a screening program to a high risk population is more likely to be successful because the positive predictive value and cost-effectiveness are higher. Although certain risk factors are known or suspected, they have generally been studied in isolation or in small groups, and it is unclear to what extent they can collectively predict risk of pancreatic cancer. A search of PubMed (11 May 2009) failed to identify any pancreatic risk prediction models applicable to the general population. One pancreatic risk prediction model was identified for individuals with a family history of pancreatic cancer, but this model was based on genetic factors and omitted several additional risk factors.(4) A number of risk factors for pancreatic cancer have been identified. They are outlined in section C.4 below. This study will develop and internally validate a risk prediction model for pancreatic cancer using pancreatic risk factors available in the PLCO and follow-up and cause of death data collected as part of the PLCO trial.