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Principal Investigator
Nicole Urban
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Cancer
About this CDAS Project
PLCO (Learn more about this study)
Project ID
Initial CDAS Request Approval
Jul 1, 2006
Applying Micro-simulation Model of Ovarian Cancer Screening to PLCO Data
Detecting cancer in its earliest stages provides a hopeful basis for improving survival in women diagnosed with ovarian cancer. The PLCO trial is currently underway to evaluate the efficacy of screening for ovarian cancer using CA125 and transvaginal ultrasound tests. The results will be available within the decade. Meanwhile, other promising biomarkers, such as HE4 and B7-H4, are emerging which may improve the earliness of detection of ovarian cancer. Our goal is to predict the results of the PLCO trial using a microsimulation model and to predict the efficacy of alternative trial designs using longitudinal screening algorithms and novel markers to screen for ovarian cancer.

Aim 1:
To predict the results of the PLCO trial based on publicly available (published) data from the PLCO trial and published reports on the performance of CA125 and Ultrasound Screening.

Aim 2:
To predict the results of a hypothetical new trial similar to the PLCO trial using multiple biomarkers and a longitudinal screening algorithm based on publicly available information from the PLCO Trial and performance data about novel biomarkers, from currently funded biomarker validation studies

Aim 3:
Predict the Public health impact of the PLCO trial and evaluate it as an investment, taking into account the value of the serum repository for the analysis of novel biomarkers.


Aimee Kreimer (Division of Cancer Prevention)