• Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, USA.
• Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, USA. yshen@mdanderson.org.

Prognostic models in cancer use patient demographic and tumor characteristics to predict survival and dynamic disease prognosis. Past work in breast cancer has shown that cancer detection method, screen-detected or symptom-detected, has prognostic significance. We investigate this phenomenon in the lung component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) screening trial. Patients were randomized to intervention, receiving four annual chest x-rays (CXRs), or to control, receiving usual care. Patients were followed for a total of approximately 13 years. In PLCO, lung cancer detection method has independent prognostic value exceeding that of variables commonly used in lung cancer prognostic models, including sex, histology, and age. Results are robust to cohort selection and type of predictive model. These results imply that detection method should be considered when developing prognostic models in lung cancer studies, and cancer registries should routinely collect cancer detection method.