• Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 6120 Executive Boulevard, EPS 8109, Bethesda, MD 20892-7240, USA. hofmannjn@mail.nih.gov

Molecular epidemiologic studies of vitamin D and risk of cancer and other health outcomes usually involve a single measurement of the biomarker 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] in serum or plasma. However, the extent to which 25(OH)D concentration at a single time point is representative of an individual's long-term vitamin D status is unclear. To address this question, we evaluated within-person variability in 25(OH)D concentrations across serum samples collected at three time points over a 5-year period among 29 participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Blood collection took place year-round, although samples for a given participant were collected in the same month each year. The within-person coefficient of variation and intraclass correlation coefficient were calculated using variance components estimated from random effects models. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated to evaluate agreement between measurements at different collection times (baseline, +1 year, +5 years). The within-subject coefficient of variation was 14.9% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.4-18.1%] and the intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.88). Spearman rank correlation coefficients comparing baseline to +1 year, +1 year to +5 years, and baseline to +5 years were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.37-0.82), 0.61 (0.29-0.81), and 0.53 (0.17-0.77), respectively. Slightly stronger correlations were observed after restricting to non-Hispanic Caucasian subjects. These findings suggest that serum 25(OH)D concentration at a single time point may be a useful biomarker of long-term vitamin D status in population-based studies of various diseases.