• Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), insulin, and IL-6 are dysregulated in multiple myeloma pathogenesis and may also contribute to multiple myeloma etiology. To examine their etiologic role, we prospectively analyzed concentrations of serologic markers in 493 multiple myeloma cases and 978 controls from 8 cohorts in the Multiple Myeloma Cohort Consortium. We computed odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for multiple myeloma per 1-SD increase in biomarker concentration using conditional logistic regression. We examined heterogeneity by time since blood collection (≤ 3, 4- ≤ 6, and > 6 years) in stratified models. Fasting IGF binding protein-1 concentration was associated with multiple myeloma risk within 3 years (OR, 95% CI per 1-SD increase: 2.3, 1.4-3.8, P = .001) and soluble IL-6 receptor level was associated within 6 years after blood draw (OR (≤ 3 years), 95% CI, 1.4, 1.1-1.9, P = .01; OR(4- ≤ 6 years), 95% CI, 1.4, 1.1-1.7, P = .002). No biomarker was associated with longer-term multiple myeloma risk (ie, > 6 years). Interactions with time were statistically significant (IGF binding protein-1, P-heterogeneity = .0016; sIL6R, P-heterogeneity = .016). The time-restricted associations probably reflect the bioactivity of tumor and microenvironment cells in transformation from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance or smoldering multiple myeloma to clinically manifest multiple myeloma.